High-Scoring WR’s that Kill Your Fantasy Team

What if I told you that starting Reggie Williams against the Titans this week was a better play than starting Kevin Curtis against the Redskins? You’d call me crazy, right? How about if I told you that Shaun McDonald is a safer play than Roy Williams? Many would find that hard to swallow. Well, this week I’m going to argue that all of the above are sound advice. To understand why, please read on.

After scanning through dozens of frantic message board posts from perplexed fantasy owners, some pervasive themes emerge. Among these is the stereotypical “who to start at WR” post which tends to involve three or four of the waiver wire’s finest wide receivers. Opinions in these forums vary wildly and the reliability of the information is suspect, to say the least.

To help shed some light on these matchups, I performed a qualitative analysis of wide receiver production for the previous three NFL seasons. Using weekly scoring statistics for every top 40 fantasy wide receiver over the period, I calculated the average weekly score and determined a relevant range which constitutes a “good” performance. Anything greater than this average was termed a “great” performance; anything less was termed a “poor” performance. Here are the average number of each type and the percentage of each type by rank:



As you can see, top-ranked wide receivers tend to have a plethora of “great” performances while the bottom-ranked wide receivers tend to have a paucity of “great” performances. This is not surprising. What I did find surprising is the fact that there is very little variation in “good” performances among the three groups. More on this later.

Let’s be honest, fantasy leagues are won or lost on “great” performances. Most of us recall (either fondly or with regret) the three-week scoring explosion provided by Billy Volek (aka “Voltron”) and Drew Bennett during the fantasy playoffs in 2004. We draft guys like Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens to give us these high-octane performances and, for the most part, they live up to their draft value.

When searching for a safe waiver wire pickup, we usually aren’t expecting a “great” performance. Rather, we are in search of a player that isn’t going to kill our fantasy team by giving us a “poor” performance. It is also worth mentioning that sometimes “great” performers kill fantasy teams. For instance, what if you knew that for every “great” performance a player would produce two “poor” performances? Would you still plug them in faithfully?

In what follows, we’ll get to the bottom of all of these questions.

Methodology

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Weekly scoring data for the past three NFL seasons was used to determine the average score and mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the population. Week 17 data was thrown out for obvious reasons. An average of 10.5 points per week was found with a MAD of 5.7. All injury weeks were removed from the sample; thus, this average may seem high at first glance.

A “standard” scoring format was used (1pt per 10 yards and 6 points per TD). I realize that PPR leagues are proliferating rapidly and, given sufficient demand, would be happy to provide those numbers in a future post; however, these findings should give some general insights with respect to all scoring formats.

Using a range of 1 MAD, I estimated a “good” performance to be any score between 8 and 13 fantasy points. Anything less than 8 was rated a “poor” performance; anything greater than 13 was rated a “great” performance.

Next, I combined the “good” and “great” performances and referred to this total as the number of “quality starts” (QS). One might argue that a beneficial wide receiver should, at a minimum, provide at least as many quality starts as they do “poor” performances. As we will see in a moment, a high point total doesn’t ensure that this is the case.

Data

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Here are the results from 2004:



Most striking to me is the rank of Ashley Lelie who, despite finishing only 24th overall, produced 11 QS’s. His total is better than five other top 10 wide receivers, including Drew Bennett who, despite his infamy, produced 3 fewer QS’s. Jerry Porter was surprisingly bad with 6 QS’s, which is fewer than any other bottom 10 wide receiver from that year, with the exception of Larry Fitzgerald (who he tied).

Here are the results from 2005:



There aren’t as many surprises in this year, although there are some notable performers. 22nd ranked Deion Branch was a great value for fantasy owners, providing 9 QS’s. Reggie Wayne, who would make big strides the following year, gave us an astonishing 10 QS’s. Jerry Porter and Lee Evans both provided an abysmal 10+ poor performances meaning that they absolutely killed any team that utilized them as a #3 WR.

Here are the results from 2006:



It is perhaps not that surprising to see Chad Johnson ranked so low. Many of you probably remember that Ocho Cinco was incredibly average last year with the exception of his back-to-back 30+ point games. T.J. Houshmanzadeh was a far better wide receiver than Chad Johnson, registering more than twice as many “great” performances and 25% more QS’s. Is it any surprise that T.J. “whosurmama” has played so much better than Chad this season?

Plaxico Burress and Mushin Muhammad were both remarkably consistent given their rankings. The oft-started Mike Furrey, Isaac Bruce, and Mark Clayton absolutely killed fantasy teams despite their top-30 ranking.

Also of note here is the fact that Chris Henry was a fantastic value for fantasy owners in 2006. If he is still available in your league, he is definitely worth a look.

As you can see, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence which suggests that total points is often an inadequate gauge of a wide receivers true value. In the next section, we’ll take a look at this years numbers and see how some of the more popular bye-week saviors—such as Ike Hilliard, Brandon Marshall, and Kevin Walter—have fared.

2007 QS’s and Implications for Matchup Management

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Using data for the first 9 weeks, I tabulated QS’s and then projected each players total over a 15 game season. Here is the data:



Let me start by saying that what T.J. Houshmanzadeh has accomplished so far this season is simply remarkable. In the last 3 years, no fantasy player has posted greater than 13 QS’s, Houshmanzadeh has a good chance of surpassing that mark this season. Also, unless you are absolutely stacked at wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald should be starting for you every week. He isn’t single-handedly winning any games this year, but his consistency is phenomenal. In addition to these two, Brandon Marshall, Bobby Engram, Shaun McDonald, Chris Chambers, and Reggie Williams have all been surprisingly consistent this year.

There is also some bad news for fantasy owners. First, the verdict is still out on Steve Smith and Joey Galloway. Both have provided a handful of “great” performances but, overall, they’ve hurt fantasy owners more than they’ve helped. Patrick Crayton, Hines Ward, and especially 12th ranked Kevin Curtis have absolutely killed fantasy teams. These are three names I consistently see listed as starters; if you own these players, you should consider trading them for some of the guys mentioned above.

Some other popular waiver wire pickups are Ike Hilliard, Kevin Walter, and Antwaan Randle El. All three failed to break the top 40 WR’s by projected QS’s and should not be starting for your team under any circumstances.

I hope you found this information helpful. I would love to hear your opinions or questions. There is more that can be done with this data for the purposes of fantasy drafts. As next year’s draft approaches, I’ll revisit this topic. Good luck!